Do vaccinations select for stronger variants?

Yes, but they also make them less likely. Here is why.

Studies show that vaccinated people who are sick are more likely to carry stronger variants of COVID. This led many to infer that vaccinations promote stronger variants. Thankfully, it’s not the case. Let me explain.

Vaccinations do select for stronger variants. However, they do not create them. Variants are created by mutations, and mutations occur with reproductions. The more people are vaccinated, the less the virus reproduces, and thus the less likely it is to develop into a stronger strain.

What creates mutations is the virus reproducing, and our focus should be in minimizing these – using vaccines & face masks where appropriate, avoiding crowds, and so on.

Disclaimer: I’m not a virologist (for example, I don’t believe that building virus labs inside 10-million-people cities such as Wuhan is a good idea), so I might have missed something.

---

Thank you for reading. If you have friends interested in this topic, please share this article with them. It’s also available as a Twitter thread.

By the way, I also have a non-COVID newsletter (here; it’s about behavior & management).