One of the hills I will die for, is that indicators are of two types – lagging (they estimate what happened) and leading (they estimate what will happen) – and that following the former causes us to react only after the worst came.
Hi Luca, I really enjoy the newsletter. On the topic of types of indicators is any indicator inherently 'leading' or 'lagging'? For instance, could number of people wearing PPE still be lagging behind some other metric? Like number of people out in public. (If we could calculate that and know that it leads to a portion of people not wearing PPE in public. )
Thank you Brad. Few indicators are fully leading or lagging; it's more like a spectrum. Yes, % of people wearing PPE is probably downstream of number of social contacts, for example.
Hi Luca, I really enjoy the newsletter. On the topic of types of indicators is any indicator inherently 'leading' or 'lagging'? For instance, could number of people wearing PPE still be lagging behind some other metric? Like number of people out in public. (If we could calculate that and know that it leads to a portion of people not wearing PPE in public. )
Thank you Brad. Few indicators are fully leading or lagging; it's more like a spectrum. Yes, % of people wearing PPE is probably downstream of number of social contacts, for example.